A research conducted in 2020 by Yu and Kuncel compared the recommendations of expert PhD psychologists working for a global consulting firm against a weighted average of 7 scores given to the same candidates by those same psychologists (computed by a multiple regressions model) in predicting actual job performance of 847 managers.

The correlation found between expert psychologists’ judgments to actual job performance scores was 0.15, which is not far from the chances of predicting fit by a coin toss.

The correlation between the statistical model (the weighted average of 7 scores) and actual job performance was 0.32.

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